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Should the UK be In or Out of Europe?

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Topic: This Europe Stuff (Read 211669 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8640
Agreed. 48% of the people voted remain. Let's say you managed to get 30% of the country to vote for you on that basis. Coalition and you're in.

(I'm probably oversimplifying the maths of getting into power, please feel free to educate me Karl)

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8641
Agreed. 48% of the people voted remain. Let's say you managed to get 30% of the country to vote for you on that basis. Coalition and you're in.

(I'm probably oversimplifying the maths of getting into power, please feel free to educate me Karl)

They'd lose lots of Leavers who make up their current voting base, and lots of Remainers wouldn't vote Labour still. (I have used my Dad a number of times as an example of a lifelong Tory who is also a passionate Remainer, and therefore a potential target for Labour. His recent visit showed me the error of that particular view, holy f*ck does he ever hate Labour and particularly Corbyn. About the best compromise he could manage was a grudging agreement that he might, possibly, consider the Lib Dems.)
They don't think it be like it is, but it do

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8642
I'm like your dad re Corbyn, if Corbyn went I could support labour (don't tell Karl but I quite liked new labour).


Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8644
I'm like your dad re Corbyn, if Corbyn went I could support labour (don't tell Karl but I quite liked new labour).

In retrospect so did I, and I also don't like Corbyn (as I have expressed). However, I'm now of the view that they could make the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher the next Labour leader and he wouldn't vote for them, so entrenched is he in the legacy of Kinnock and Foot and Scargill. I wonder how many others there are like him. I suspect many more than we might like.
They don't think it be like it is, but it do

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8645
In retrospect so did I, and I also don't like Corbyn (as I have expressed). However, I'm now of the view that they could make the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher the next Labour leader and he wouldn't vote for them, so entrenched is he in the legacy of Kinnock and Foot and Scargill. I wonder how many others there are like him. I suspect many more than we might like.

I don't think that's right. Blair showed that persuading people towards the centre was more likely to get their support.

KM will tell you that era is dead but his party is currently unelectable, and will continue to be so unless it persuades the people in the middle . And it won't do that with the pseudo Marxists in charge.

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8646
I don't think that's right. Blair showed that persuading people towards the centre was more likely to get their support.

KM will tell you that era is dead but his party is currently unelectable, and will continue to be so unless it persuades the people in the middle . And it won't do that with the pseudo Marxists in charge.

I'll keep telling you that the Blair centre is dead because it was killed off by the crash that was the inevitable conculsuion of the economic policy. If you allow ever greater proportions of GDP to accrue to groups with less inclination to spend and more inclination to shift wealth abroad to avoid taxes, then your economy becomes overly reliant on debt to sustain itself. The crash was inevitable, and the consequent anaemic recovery is due to the continuation of those policies. But, I'm told that it will be different this time: all we need to do is Remain and carry on as if nothing happened.

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8647
Agreed. 48% of the people voted remain. Let's say you managed to get 30% of the country to vote for you on that basis. Coalition and you're in.

(I'm probably oversimplifying the maths of getting into power, please feel free to educate me Karl)

The key is in the distribution of those Remain voters. If it was as simple as going hard core remain, that's what would have been done. The majority of those Remain votes are to be found in seats where Labour already has a majority, particularly in London. They don't have a hope to picking up many of the seats where the Tories have a huge majority and the Remain support is fairly high.

On the other side, the Leave voters are greater in proportion where Labour have a smaller majority. At the 2017 election, the current strategy worked to an extent because Brexit was still far enough in the future for voters to have it lower down their priority list and to focus on other issues. Current evidence shows that voters are peeling off rapidly at both ends.

As for Russ's dad, he's the sort of voter that Labour would never appeal to anyway, so they would never be a target group (no offence to Russ's dad).

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8648
As for Russ's dad, he's the sort of voter that Labour would never appeal to anyway, so they would never be a target group (no offence to Russ's dad).

None taken. I had hopes that he might be becoming a bit more reasonable, but it seems 70 year old men aren't prone to that.
They don't think it be like it is, but it do

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8649
So if we had a more left leaning government we would eradicate boom and bust? That seems familiar.

 

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8650
Star Wars, but fair enough.
The point is that the Brexit side has a very simple and strong message which is working; the Remain side does not. The strategic mistake by Remainers has been the failure to carefully study the Brexit argument. This is easily done: because leaving the EU is such an anathema to Remainers, they get caught up in arguments around the edges, forgetting to tackle the core of the debate. It's an error that I've only recently come to recognise myself.

Perhaps part of the problem is that whilst the anti-EU politicians and press have spent the last X years telling people that everything is sh!t, the pro-EU lot have been, er, doing exactly the same. We focus on the campaigns of the right-wing press for good reason, but they’re not the only ones pushing a constant ‘you should be angry, big things must change’ narrative. It’s hard to pivot from that to a position of conservatism re. the EU with credibility when you have been (and maybe still are) begrudgingly accepting at best.

The Remain argument came from nowhere because so few people, before the campaign, were enthusiastic about the EU and being in it.

People have been told, a lot, that the system is rigged against them. That’s a simple and appealing message. It doesn’t require them to think deeply about the particular mechanisms and parts of the system that need to be changed. The EU is a big-ass part of the system.
this is an excellent rectangle

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8651

@noodlé exactly. All Farage and co are doing is tapping into an emotion that already exists. I don't agree with their prescription for treating the problem, far from it, but there are deep, deep problems with the EU right now that have been allowed to fester due to complacency.

Reading around on the EU elections quite a few things stand out, front and centre being the attempted far-right alliance. This is seriously dangerous stuff we are witnessing, and yet we still see complacency. It is a huge mistake to see the British position as being in isolation whilst the rest of the EU sits together closer than ever, because that is simply not the case.

The EPP (supposedly centre-right, but until very recently they contained Orban's mob) are the largest grouping of MEPs in the Parliament and have been since 1999, with PES (supposedly centre-left) the second largest. Having the largest bloc gives a great deal of control over committees and policies, all far too detailed to get into here.

The important point is that the EPP has expanded rightwards over time to ensure it retains control of the largest bloc, hence why Orban's far-right mob found themselves in the grouping.

In the forthcoming election, it is likely that the far-right MEPs will increase in number. How does EPP respond? Does it seek to retain its hold on power by allowing ever more extreme right wing factions to join its grouping?

Slowly, but surely, those far-right policies are edging from the unacceptable end of politics towards the mainstream. Remember, these groups don't need to win a majority, they only have to scare more mainstream parties enough to make them panic and shift further to the right themselves as we've seen with the Tories in the UK. This then breaks down further resistance amongst the voting public. The Brexit referendum was a manifestation of this within the UK; the last election result in Italy was another. On the other side of the coin, you could say the perceived leftward shift of the Labour party is a response to this.

There is a clear democratic deficit in the EU that needs resolving, but is almost impossible due to the current constitution. Serious reform is needed, but the lock on all constitution elements by the European Council makes this almost impossible.



Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8653
I completely agree with everything in this comment piece. The Led by Donkeys campaign is cathartic for the converted, but does nothing to lessen the Leave vote.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/19/led-by-donkeys-billboards-nigel-farage-ann-widdecombe

Surely the point isn’t to lessen the leave vote but increase the remain vote.

Re: This Europe Stuff

Reply #8654
Surely the point isn’t to lessen the leave vote but increase the remain vote.

It's trying to discredit the principal actors on the Leave side. But, the columnist makes a very good point: all they are actually doing is publicising the people involved, and the people in question are shameless so it actually makes no difference. Can there be anybody who isn't already aware of Farage's duplicity and lies? Or Widdicombe's extreme views on homosexuality and abortion?

It seems unlikely to me, so all the ads actually do is draw further attention to the Leave campaign, which is exactly what they want. People constantly moan about how often Farage and co appear in the media, and this is a key part of the reason why. The only way to combat it is to have your own positive campaign which is singularly lacking. The Lib Dems are making a good go of their Bollocks to Brexit, but it is still missing a key positive element.