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Messages - Guru

1
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Dick, Kerr's Gentlemen's Club
This was a feature of the friday night pissed up talkback rant.  By the looks on everyone elses face, they thought my ideas were mental.

Very rare a manager comes in and doesn't play how he favours....there were definitely statistically minded contributors who thought that might be the case. I don't.

My position.

1. I don't think this team and squad, gets to this position next season - so some evolution (at least of the strength of the squad is necessary).
2. I don't see how you evolve the style to be better on the ball, without loosing structure and introducing other problems, unless you move to a different setup (say a younger, more athletic front three, including a hold up player, rather than a fox).
3. I doubt that Grabs will have as good a season next season, it's a standout campaign for him in terms of what he has brought.

So my conclusion is that I would sell Grabs, and restructure the attack.

I don't think Smoochi Lambrini will.

You called?

The point I was making was that when he came in, he had to come up with a pragmatic style based on an inherited squad and no real preseason. He’s pursued a very structured, defensively minded, counterattacking, sh!thousery approach with two fairly static DMs. There are two wide players characterised by pace and limited skill, although I will accept Ameobi has the element of surprise and Lolley’s cut inside still seems to work fairly frequently. I suspect that once the side was firmly established in the play off positions, he’s decided to stick, not twist as there is a perception that “Top 6” was the target given to him and he’s delivered it. Today the midfield was Watson, Sow, Yates. That’s as defensive and as uncreative as we can be.

Burrrttt....Repeated appearances in the top 6 of the Championship get you nothing if you are not promoted fairly soon. We have to be pissed off and hungry if we don’t get promoted in order to drive progression. To increase our chances of promotion next season, we do need to improve significantly. Either we get more effective as a counterattacking side or we develop an alternate more dynamic approach where we have more of the ball.  I don’t know enough about his previous teams to know whether he will adopt a different style with better players and more time to work with them. I hope he can.

We will need to replace Cash (who would be stupid not to go) and possibly Lolley. Watson and Sow are close to being done, so do we build a midfield based on Bostock and Yates? I wouldn’t sell Grabbs until we know what we are doing/who has come in etc. He’s 33 next May, so we are not going to get £10m...Mighten is not ready, even though he’s getting chances. What’s up with Walker?

I don’t disagree with your assessment. I just don’t know whether Sabri will be able to adapt. You think he can’t.

2
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Dick, Kerr's Gentlemen's Club
From the BBC website, could have been written by talkback (my accentuation)


By contrast, Forest would require a real fade in form from their final three games to drop out of the reckoning, but wins for Fulham and Brentford this weekend means they are unlikely to finish any higher than FIFTH!

Sabri Lamouchi cut a frustrated figure at times, as his side huffed and puffed but were unable to fully impose themselves on the game.



5
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Dick, Kerr's Gentlemen's Club
I just think at some point we are going to need to give our two main attacking threats a rest and at least one game off entirely. There’s no break between the end of the season and the play offs or between the semi and the final. Stoke is Wednesday, first leg Sunday/Monday, second leg Wednesday/thursday, final Tuesday. The important thing is for Lolley and Grabban to be fit and ready then.

Would you go into a match against a team with renewed play off vigour without Lolley and Grabban? I would prefer they we bag 4-5 points as soon as possible, guarantee ourselves FIFTH!! and if we can comfortably rest players for the last game/game and a half, then we should do so.
7
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Them there t'other clubs
Yeah but we can still get automatic and go up with the dirty Leed.
What does xGuru say about that?

Here are the *facts* tricky....80 points....4 games....we need to win all 4, West Brom need to lose all 4. And we need to turn over a 21 goal difference. Throw in various additional connotations that involve Brentford getting only 4 points from 4 games and Fulham 7 from 4 (or rather 4 from 3 as they play West Brom, who would have to lose....)

I’m thinking “extremely unlikely” although accept there are some on here who will be holding out hope until it’s mathematically impossible and I am simply the harbinger of doom.

You would just say “Fifth!”

13
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Cottaging with the boys
I am 94% confident we will make the play-offs, 43% certain we will get to Wemberley and 22% sure we will absolutely definitely be promoted.

Assuming you didn’t pluck those numbers out of your bum and that you gave them careful statistical consideration (!), it looks like you and I are in about the same place once we get to the play offs. You are more slightly more optimistic about our chances should we get to Wembley (52% vs 45%) although I doubt this will be statistically significant once we add in our margins of uncertainty...and let’s face it, with Forest, that margin is usually pretty wide.

If/when we get into the playoffs, which is something that occurs only once a decade, I would prefer that we able to give it a decent go, not just be there to make up the numbers. I will be more confident if:

1. We go in with a decent run of form. If we get in on 74pts, that will constitute 6 points from 6 games. That’s not a decent run of form.
2. No injuries or suspensions. Lolley, Sow, Samba....All looking a bit dodge.
3. A decent level of fortitude to see a tight game out. Conceding 2 goals in injury time is not just bad for us, it gives opposition reason to believe we are fragile.
4. A decent level of fortitude to create chances when we are down/disruptive plan B. This was the frustration in the Fulham game.


14
The Daily Cut and Thrust / Re: Cottaging with the boys
I went from less than 50% yesterday evening (See Simon’s quote) to 50% earlier today.

I think the chances of us getting to the playoffs are about 50%.. our chances of getting to Wembley would be <50% if we do make the play offs, and a further <50% if we get to Wembley.

So, just to annoy tricky, that’s makes our chances of promotion about 10% (0.5 x 045x 0.45). That feels about right.

This has now gone up due to me taking note of the expert opinions of others on here, bookies odds plus emerging data (d*rby losing) to revise my estimate.

Look, I try and introduce sophisticated stats and you guys keep quoting a single number...

It's perfectly reasonable to say we're not as good as Fulham or Brentford. Yet our record against them this season is P4 W3 L1.

I see you haven’t played my game...but based on the above, I assume you are 100% confident we will make the play offs and 75% likely to get promoted assuming it’s Fulham and Brentford?